Opponents of "Nord stream – 2" lost their last argument against this international energy project. The legal service of the EU Council gave negative conclusion to the amendments in the European Commission`s Gas Directive. The chances of their accelerated approval are also negligible.
In November 2017, the European Commission submitted a draft amendment to the EU energy legislation framework document - the Gas Directive (2009/73/EC). It was proposed to extend the norms of European legislation in this area to gas pipelines entering from third countries into Europe. In the case of the amendments, the EC would have the right to demand the separation of the functions of the supplier and transiter, as well as admission to the tube of third parties. This could harm the Baltic sea project from Russia to Germany "Nord stream – 2" gas pipeline with a capacity of 55 bсм per year.
The amendments were largely due to the efforts of Poland and Lithuania, which are most actively opposed to this project, calling it "geopolitical, splitting the unity of the EU and increasing energy dependence on Russia". The verdict of the legal service of the EU Council significantly complicates the task of these countries to disrupt its implementation.
According to the lawyers, "the European Union does not have jurisdiction to extend the requirements of energy legislation to pipelines crossing the exclusive economic zone of the member States of the Union".
Otherwise, the Gas Directive "would be in direct conflict with articles 56 and 58 of the UN Maritime Convention". The document also refers to the groundlessness of spreading the EU Third energy package`s provisions to the "Nord stream – 2" in terms of separation of the functions of the supplier and transiter and also third parties access guarantees to the pipeline.
This trouble for Warsaw and Vilnius did not end there. Hopes for an accelerated adoption of the draft amendments also did not materialize.
The legal service came to the conclusion that, in addition to analyzing the contradictions between the draft law and the practice of applying international law, it is necessary to study the issue of "infringement of the sovereign rights of EU member States by the EU draft law".
In fact, the position of lawyers is not surprising, as it reflects the general attitude of Europeans to this topic. Most of the 34 EC published reviews objected to the accelerated approval of the draft amendments. And only 12 do not contain any objections. First of all, the readiness to support the bill was expressed by representatives of Polish companies. The overwhelming feedback expressed the need for a comprehensive examination of the possible implications of the amendments as a prerequisite for further discussion of the amendments.
The prospect of further extensive legal research, apparently, will break the previously announced by the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker timing of the adoption of the amendments (due to the end of 2018). Even if the amendments are adopted in some form, their fate will be decided by voting in the European Parliament and the EU Council.
Today the current balance of forces in these structures is in favor of "Nord stream – 2".
As for the European Parliament, its domestic political agenda is entirely determined by Germany and France interested in the implementation of this project. In turn, a decision in the EU Council will require a qualified majority, which will be considered at least 55% of the EU Council members, representing at least 14 countries and at least 65% of the EU population. Given the fact that the number of votes in the EU Council are distributed among countries in proportion to their populations, Germany (16.7 per cent), France (12.8 per cent), UK (12.3%), Italy (11,9%), Spain (8.9 per cent) and Poland (7.7 per cent) have the greatest share. The remaining countries account for — from 0.1% to 4.4%.
If you look at the countries that are supporters of the project, which through their energy companies either invest in the pipeline, or provide it with orders for the supply of gas or via affiliated subsidiaries receive revenue from the construction of the gas pipeline — it is 51.3% of the total number of votes. The project is supported by: Germany (E. on, BASF, Wintershall, Uniper), Netherlands and United Kingdom (Shell, Wasco Coatings Europe BV), Austria (OMV), France (ENGIE), Czech Republic (NET4Gas), Finland (Fortum, Wasco), Switzerland (Allseas AG), Malta (Pioneering Spirit) and Slovakia.
In turn, Italy, which is not directly involved in the implementation of this project, is one of the main European consumers of Gazprom (2017 — 24 bcm, more consumed only by Germany and Turkey).
Taking into account the return of Silvio Berlusconi to politics, whose center-right coalition won snap parliamentary elections in Italy in March of this year, gas cooperation with Russia has all the chances for expansion.
Against this background, the total share of opponents of the project (Poland — 7,7%, Romania — 4,4%, Lithuania — 0,7%, Latvia — 0,5% and Estonia — 0,3%) is 13,6%.
Thus, the legal and procedural components of this issue are clearly not in favor of the opponents of "Nord stream – 2".
And it is unlikely that the US trade war against the EU will force European countries to reconsider their position on this project.
The Trump administration, under the pretext of protecting national producers, imposed protective duties on the supply of steel and aluminum to America. Such "protectionism" will seriously affect European and Russian companies, whose share of overseas sales reaches 20%. The European Commission called the actions of the US administration "blatant intervention" and promised an asymmetrical response.
European Commissioner for trade Cecilia Мalmström, commenting on the situation, said that the US decision on steel duties from the European Union will have a bad impact on transatlantic relations. In turn, the head of the EC Jean-Claude Juncker in response proposed to impose a duty on imports to Europe of such popular American goods as jeans, whiskey and motorcycles Harley Devidson.
All of this seems like an attempt by the US to punish Europeans for their intransigence and unwillingness to sacrifice their own economic interests in order to keep America dominant in the world.
The only option that remained with the opponents of the "Nord stream-2" is the pressure on Denmark, through the territorial waters and the exclusive economic zone of which it is planned to lay a pipe (a section with a length of 139 km), in order to abandon the project. Which in itself is not promising. Who in his right mind will deprive himself of a stable income due to the gas transit?
However, even the negative decision of Copenhagen will not block the project. The pipeline will bypass if necessary. All needed calculations in this case have been made.
The "Nord stream – 2" project is being implemented on schedule. Its commissioning is scheduled for the end of 2019. In Lithuania, it seems, finally realized the inevitability of its implementation: the Lithuanian National energy association in protest withdrew from the European Eurogas because of the support of the majority of its members of the Russian gas pipeline. Now is the turn of Poland.
