Brussels has spoken out against the new anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the US, which they think could hurt large European businesses. Germany is threatening Washington with retaliatory measures if the American government will impose sanctions on German companies, who are building the Nord Stream 2. Under the guise of anti-Russian sanctions, the United States are imposing sanctions against Europe, forcing Germany and all of the European Union to pay their American allies a debt for the NATO military defense line and buying American LNG instead of Russian pipeline gas.
US Congress announced that they agreed upon a new set of sanctions against Russia. Despite expectations, talk of American and European transatlantic solidarity remains intact, at least when it comes to Russia, and Brussels even showed some enthusiasm. The Eurocommission condemned the American politicians for not consulting with their European allies when making decisions on sanctions. Washington acting of their own accord with the anti-Russian measures may lead to “Widespread unforeseen consequences”.
“Sanctions are at their most effective when they are coordinated. Currently our sanctions regimes are coordinated. As a result their impact on the ground is increased and through coordination we are able to avoid surprises, manage potential impact on our own economic operators and address collectively efforts to circumvent such measures. Unilateral measures would undermine this,” say the European bureaucrats.
Europe’s disdain is easy to understand.
The new anti-Russian sanctions by the US will hit large European companies that work with Russia, in other words, the Americans have decided to impose sanctions not just on Russia, but the Europeans themselves, who dare develop economic times with anyone outside of their NATO allies.
The Europeans are obviously displeased by such measures. “Transatlantic solidarity” in fighting Russia is not fooling anyone when the actual hit goes to you and not Russia.
It is understandable that the European Unions’ economic leader – Germany – is most concerned. Berlin isn’t even trying to hide the fact that the sanction war is now against them and are threatening USA with retaliatory measures if the American government will indeed impose sanctions against German companies that are building the second branch of the Russia-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
German representatives, as well as other “Old Europe” countries, who are interested in the Nord Stream’s construction show concern for the new American sanctions having a negative impact not only on the Euro-Atlantic community of Europe and America, but the functioning of G7 as a whole, European Union’s economy and EU countries energy security.
With the deepening confrontation of liberal America and Germany against Trump’s America, Washington may, for the first time, use instruments of sanction coercion for its NATO allies.
So the usual talk of “holding Russia back” shouldn’t fool anyone here. The Americans are thinking in the Anglo-Saxon legal system of court precedents, so if they use the sanctions at least once against German companies, then the use of sanctions in settling arguments with their allies in Europe will be the new norm in USA’s foreign policy. As the conflict areas with the Trump administration grow, the adoption of new sanctions (mainly against Germany) will be all the more likely. Berlin and Washington’s differences are now so broad, that Angela Merkel’s government can’t afford any leeway.
First, the US President Donald Trump is making protectionism America’s new economic policy and trying to limit German imports to the American market.
Second, the White House administration is lobbying the export of American LNG to the European energy market, which is multiple times more expensive than the Russian pipeline gas. This specifically is what led to the new sanctions against the Nord Stream.
Third, President Trump is demanding money from Chancellor Angela Merkel for decades of USA’s military protection of West Germany. On the very first meeting with Merkel, Trump gave the kanzlerin the 375 billion USD bill. Two leaders of the Western world have a serious conflict “over money”, which couldn’t be hidden from the global community: after the negotiations Trump refused to shake Merkel’s hand on camera and the chancellor swore off Transatlantic solidarity upon arriving home, saying that they can only rely on themselves.
America’s demands to their European allies, threats of using the sanction “stick” on them and overall tensions in Washington-Brussels-Berlin relations may soon grow into a full-on confrontation within the Western world.
So whom can Washington rely upon in this grand crusade for German money? Traditionally London was America’s biggest ally within the EU, however last year, Berlin and Paris had a bout of “tremendous luck”: the Brits voted for the United Kingdom to leave the EU. So even if the British elites wanted to turn back Brexit, the EU founding countries won’t let the United Kingdom, which was the counterweight to the domination of the Roman-Germanic “core” of the EU, just waltz back in.
If London is out, then Trump America’s main ally in the Old World is now Eastern Europe. And Donald Trump knows this, on the eve of the G20 meeting, he went to Warsaw and proclaimed Poland to be US’s most important European ally.
That is true. As long as the right conservatives from Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) remain in power in Warsaw, Poland will be America’s closest ally in its struggle against the “Old Europe.” Kaczyński’s Poland has its own expanding conflict with Brussels, Berlin and Paris, just like Trump’s America. Brussels is about to take Poland’s voting right in the EU Council, the new European Commission documents have economic sanctions against Warsaw – taking their Eurofund subsidies as punishment for “violating democratic norms and the principle rule of law.”
PiS’ natural reaction to this is to become an ally of the White House in its fight against Angela Merkel.
Under Obama, Kaczyński’s team was expecting to establish Poland as alternative center of Europe by using the conflict between the West and Russia. Under Trump, PiS are hoping to achieve the same by using the conflict between USA and Germany.
Poland is no longer “NATO’s East flank”, but America’s Trojan Horse (or rather a Trojan Donkey) in the EU. Considering the scope of the conflict with Brussels, Poland’s ruling elite has no other options.
But the question remains concerning the Baltic countries. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia can join Poland and its Visegrád Group allies and be America’s Trojan Pony for the European Union. This is coming from their ongoing orientation to USA, which defined all of the Baltics foreign policy and the key decisions in internal policy as well.
Should the Baltics take this option, they will go the same route as Poland and are guaranteed to lose financial flows from EU’s budget.
And the Baltic leaders will also lose the dream of working in the European Commission and other EU governing bodies, which they yearn for so much.
Unlike Poland, the leading elites of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have no smoldering conflict with Brussels and the old guard, so they could theoretically take another option: join all of “progressive humanity” in the fight against “chauvinist, racist and sexist Donald Trump.” Meaning – support liberal Europe in its fight against conservative America.
But that is a hard task, when Donald Trump is the US president and your direct superior, and the habit of following Washington’s directions in everything is dyed into their bones after decades of their time as American puppets.
So the conflict between Europe and America, as it intensifies, will start tearing the Baltics apart.
Currently the Baltic governments have elected to remain neutral in this conflict and wait for the whole thing to just blow over. This has already happened during the war in Iraq, when Germany and France, along with Russia, spoke out against American aggression, but the Baltics took USA’s side. USA and Europe’s conflict was soon forgotten, so there were no problems in picking team America for Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn.
However now the conflict’s reasons run deeper. 375 billion dollars are not the same as poorly thought through arguments over international law. Germany will fight its allies until the bitter end for that kind of money.
And the Baltic countries will sooner or later be put on the spot and forced to choose: who are you in the European Union? Are you with us or are you enemy agents?
And what would the Baltics say then?
Translated by Pavel Shamshiev